What Does Brown Need to do to Successfully Replace Werth?
By: Mike Reisman
Besides the acquisition of Cliff Lee, the loss of Jayson Werth was the main move of the off-season. Since then, the assumption is that super-prospect Domonic Brown will start most games in right, and maybe share time with Ben Francisco. With that said, how much will it take for Dominic Brown to be considered a successful replacement for Jayson Werth?
First, we need to take a look at what the Phillies are losing in Werth. Werth is tricky since he has played for eight seasons, and will be 32 this year, normally the prime of a career, and definitely a time where improvement is not really expected. However, Werth has only played over 100 games three times, so it's hard to tell whether 2008 and 2010 are good indicators of his worth (pun intended) or whether 2009 is really what he's capable of. Or are his increasing SABR stats a good indication?
Let's start with his normal numbers (in years with over 100 games played). Werth has averaged about 31 homers per 162 games, but adjusted since he won't play every game, that's about 29, or 30 home runs. He also averaged about 89 RBIs per season, and had a .279 average, so obviously the Phillies are losing a big part of their line-up. Basically, the Phillies are losing a solid 5th hitter, or a very good 6th hitter.
Now, his SABR stats (courtesy of
Baseball Reference) are a different story. His stats have been more than great since joining the Phillies, getting a career high in WAR last year with an incredible 5.2. His WAR has been on the rise, and he has not been under 3 in the stat since 2007 where he still had a good 2.8 WAR. His Rbat (number of runs batted more or less than average player) has also been increasing, going from 13, to 24 to 39 in the past three years. Sabrmetrically speaking, Jayson Werth was a no doubt all-star.
Of course, when looking at Werth, you have to remember what he did in the post-season as well. In 44 playoff games, Werth had 13 homers, and 26 RBIs. What is really impressive though is his .351 average in the World Series. Simply put, the Phillies are losing a consistently good playoff performer.
So finally, time for Brown. Brown is a top five prospect who got some time in the bigs last year. His main advantage over Werth? Potential. This year will be Brown's first full year in the majors after completely annihilating pitchers in the minors. As far as prospects go, Brown is considered one of the few sure things in the majors, and if his swing is really fixed, he could possibly go for 25+ home runs this year. The other main advantage with him is the fact that he doesn't cost $10 Million.
So with all of this said, three major things need to be taken into account. First, Werth was a great 5th hitter in the line-up and the Phillies are expecting Brown to be there, not this year but soon. Second, Brown has almost unlimited potential, and though he is young, the organization has high expectations. However, the third thing is that everyone must realize that Brown is still young and inexperienced and will probably bat 7th, a spot with far fewer RISP than the 5th spot.
FINAL LINE NEEDED TO BE SUCCESSFUL: .280 AVG, 20 HR, 63RBI, WAR of 2.0 or higher.
What do you guys think he needs to do?